Heat pumps have so far withstood the death of federal tax credits

See more from Canary Media’s ​“Chart of the Week” column.

America’s demand for heat pumps isn’t going away just because federal incentives did.

Shipments of heat pumps stayed strong in the first half of 2026, and the tech is on track to match or exceed its best year, according to a recent report from the Building Decarbonization Coalition. The nonprofit relies on data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, a trade group that represents most of the U.S. market.

This is in spite of the fact that President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress ripped away tax credits that helped households afford heat pumps — which can both cool and warm homes and wean buildings off polluting gas furnaces — as well as rooftop solar, batteries, and other clean energy tech. The 25C tax credit for heat pumps, which shaved up to $2,000 off the price tag, expired at the end of 2025 — seven years earlier than the Biden administration’s deadline.

So what gives? It could be that the tax credit was never a determining factor for most people getting heat pumps — a hypothesis put forth by Lucas Davis, a business professor at the University of California, Berkeley.

“I suspect most households adopted heat pumps without ever knowing anything about the credit, or didn’t learn about the tax credit until months later when filing their taxes,” he wrote in a blog post earlier this year, noting that previous research shows heat pump adoption in the U.S. is driven by geography, climate, and electricity prices. ​“It may simply be that these factors are much more important than subsidies for driving adoption behavior.” Contractors repeatedly told ACHR News, an industry publication, that they were usually the ones bringing up the tax credit to customers, not vice versa.

Meanwhile, households in some parts of the U.S. can still access state and utility incentives for heat pumps, and many local governments continue to plow ahead with ordinances that encourage households to ditch fossil fuels. Plus, contractors have gotten more familiar with heat pumps in recent years.

Unfortunately, other technologies haven’t been as resilient: The rooftop solar sector has shown signs of struggle in the post-tax-credit era, as has the electric vehicle market.

So, heat pumps are a bright spot. Barring a dramatic shift in consumer behavior, 2026 is set to be a very good year for the tech. Keep an eye out for the final tally.