Chart: GOP districts to lose big if Trump halts clean energy factories

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Cleantech companies have announced a whopping $129 billion worth of clean energy factory plans since August 2022, when former President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, according to new data from E2, a nonpartisan group of business leaders and investors. More than 80% of that money would go to Republican congressional districts.

But residents of those districts won’t reap the benefits of that proposed investment if the Trump administration continues to derail the nascent clean energy manufacturing boom.

Clean energy factory announcements appear to be grinding to a halt early into President Donald Trump’s second term.

In January, announcements fell to just $176 million, E2 found. That’s by far the lowest level since the Inflation Reduction Act authorized hundreds of billions of dollars worth of incentives, grants, and loans for manufacturers to make products like solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, and low-carbon steel in the U.S. Most months since then, newly announced investments have topped $1 billion, per E2.

The slowdown comes as Trump’s wrecking-ball approach to Biden-era industrial policy sows deep uncertainty for the clean energy sector.

On his first day in office, Trump froze spending from the Inflation Reduction Act and 2021 infrastructure law, pausing the programs that have lent money to major automakers to build EV facilities and have backed the first new U.S. aluminum smelter in decades. Federal judges have ordered the administration to unfreeze those funds, though money is reportedly still inaccessible for many recipients.

More concerning for manufacturers is the specter of Trump and congressional Republicans revoking Inflation Reduction Act tax credits that incentivize domestic manufacturing as well as the purchase of U.S.-made clean energy products.

In recent months a number of manufacturers have scrapped plans to build U.S. factories as the fate of these incentives remains murky.

Solar firm Heliene paused plans to build a $200 million solar-cell facility in the U.S. in late December. In January, Kore Power, a U.S.-based energy storage startup, backed out of building a new $1.2 billion factory in Arizona, in part because the $850 million low-cost loan it was approved for by the Biden administration may now fail to materialize. One week later, in early February, battery firm Freyr Battery canceled plans to build a $2.6 billion factory near Atlanta.

Some analysts have argued that these federal tax credits could be protected from repeal because of the benefits they accrue to Republican districts. A handful of Republican lawmakers have spoken out in favor of preserving them. But to date, the Trump administration’s approach to Biden-era clean energy policies can best be described not as careful and considered — but as aggressive and unpredictable.