Chart: US solar installations hit record high, but could drop in 2025

Canary Media’s chart of the week translates crucial data about the clean energy transition into a visual format. Canary thanks Clean Energy Counsel for its support of the column.

The U.S. is set to shatter its previous utility-scale solar record — but some analysts think that installations will come back down to earth in 2025.

Across the country, over 32 gigawatts’ worth of large-scale solar installations will be built this year, according to a new report from the American Clean Power Association and S&P Global Commodity Insights. 

Solar installations have surged across the globe in recent years, as the price of panels — mainly produced in China — has dropped.

That trend has held true in the U.S. as well. In 2020, the country installed just over 10 GW of utility-scale solar. By 2023, that figure had doubled to 21 GW. Now, in 2024, installations are expected to grow by over 50 percent compared with last year’s already rapid pace.

But things could change for U.S. solar in 2025. S&P Global Commodity Insights predicts that utility-scale solar installations will drop 16 percent next year — and won’t recover until 2027.

That’s because this year’s ​“uniquely high” installations were driven by the expiration of a two-year moratorium on tariffs targeting solar panels made in Southeast Asia, S&P wrote. That pause, which ended in June, allowed companies to stockpile cheap panels, but developers were required to use up that inventory by December 3 to avoid paying duties.

President-elect Donald Trump is expected to continue, if not intensify, these tariffs when he takes office in January. The incoming Republican trifecta may also eliminate or water down clean energy tax credits included in the Inflation Reduction Act, including those for manufacturing projects, a move that would make solar more expensive and slow down installations as a result.

Even without any tax credits, S&P expects the cost of utility-scale solar to fall 14 percent by 2035. ​“Despite short-term headwinds, the picture remains optimistic,” the report says, noting that annual installations will rise to 37 GW by the end of the decade.

But when it comes to solar forecasts, it’s worth considering the track record of industry analysts: Time and time again, they’ve underestimated the technology’s pace of progress. 

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