Nuclear energy could be in for a big decade

This article is part of our ​“Chart of the Week” series.

The global nuclear energy industry has been muted since 2011, when the Fukushima Daiichi disaster unfolded in Japan. Some new reactors have been built — especially in China — but a lot of old nuclear power plants have been retired as well.

That means nuclear energy has been ​“running in place” for well over a decade, as a new report from BloombergNEF puts it. But now, the market is changing — and BNEF’s analysts predict that the sector is poised to break out in a sprint.

BNEF forecasts that global nuclear energy capacity will rise to 535 gigawatts by 2036, a 44% increase from last year’s installed capacity of 372 GW.

A simple reason for the optimistic forecast is that a lot of reactors are under construction worldwide: 76, according to BNEF, as of the first half of this year. Almost every single one is a conventional large-scale reactor, as opposed to a buzzy new small nuclear reactor. Those units represent 83 GW of new capacity on their own.

Nuclear energy’s turnaround comes as countries look to decarbonize their power grids, as it’s a readily available source of carbon-free electricity. It’s also just a big source of electricity, period — and global demand for power is rising fast. Several countries, including Japan, have also shown renewed interest in nuclear energy in light of the Iran war, which has roiled global oil and gas markets.

China is leading this new nuclear buildout. It’s home to nearly half of all reactors under construction worldwide, and by 2030 it may have more nuclear capacity online than the U.S., the current global leader.

Officials in the U.S., for their part, are talking a big game about reinvigorating the domestic nuclear industry. Construction in the U.S. remains scant compared with China’s dozens of in-progress reactors, but the sector is making some headway in the U.S. Two smaller, advanced reactors are underway in the U.S. as of this spring, and an 800-megawatt reactor in Michigan may come back online this year after missing a 2025 target.

The things to track now are timing and cost. In certain markets, especially the U.S., nuclear projects have been dogged by extreme cost overruns and blown deadlines — and that combination has held back the sector’s growth. The new wave of interest gives the industry a chance to prove it can finish projects on budget and on time. We’ll see if it delivers.

Canary Media’s ​“Chart of the Week” series is supported by Amazon. Amazon is known for speed and scale. That same approach drives their sustainability efforts. Guided by data and science, and powered by invention, Amazon works backward from ambitious targets to drive measurable progress. Every package delivered, every data center powered, every product designed is an opportunity to make tomorrow better.