The Iran war will cause global fossil fuel emissions to fall
Counter to analysts’ early expectations, planet-warming pollution from fossil fuels is set to dip in 2026 — the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Global fossil fuel emissions are expected to dip this year for the first time since 2020.
This time it was not plague but war driving the decline. The Iran war has caused brutal increases in oil and natural gas prices, leading many countries to cut their consumption of the fossil fuels and seek alternatives.
It’s not an especially large drop. Fossil-fuel-related emissions will tick down by less than half a percent this year, compared to 2025, per new data from the Global Carbon Project. Nevertheless, it’s a surprising development: Analysts had initially expected emissions to rise this year.
It was clear from the earliest days that the Iran war would reshape the world’s energy use.
Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 25% of the world’s crude oil and 19% of its liquified natural gas flows, shortly after the first U.S.-Israeli strikes began. But it was not obvious what that would mean for global emissions in the near term.
Yes, countries were trying to use less of those fuels to avoid spiking costs. And, yes, plenty of nations were racing to backfill their needs with EVs or renewables. At the same time, however, several countries sought refuge in coal — the dirtiest fossil fuel of all.
It’s now evident that the bump in coal use has been offset by the stark decline in oil consumption in particular.
The question is whether this is the start of a trend — or an aberration, like the pandemic-fueled drop of 2020. The answer is hotly debated. Some analysts argue oil and gas demand will come roaring back whenever the war eventually ends. Others say it has kick-started a wave of cleantech adoption that is here to stay.
