Why I’m optimistic about cleantech over the next four years

Having spent over 15 years deeply involved in the cleantech industry, I’ve experienced its peaks, valleys, and everything in between. Since Trump’s win, industry insiders and the media have been wallowing in an unusual amount of doom and gloom. Many are concerned about policy uncertainty, shifting market conditions, and the challenges of scaling up technologies that are inherent in our sector.

But let me share a contrarian view. I think we’re on the brink of a golden era for renewable energy and clean transportation deployments. In fact, I believe that the next four years will redefine our industry in ways we’ve only dreamed of. Here’s why.

Renewables + storage will dominate energy economics

Lithium-ion battery prices have been falling for years, driven by the expansion of manufacturing and technological innovation. By the end of this decade, renewable energy combined with storage solutions will offer the lowest cost of energy for most hours of the day. This is the inevitable outcome of economies of scale meeting the pressing global need for clean energy.

Wind and solar, paired with increasingly cost-effective storage systems, will soon surpass fossil fuels — not just on environmental grounds but on pure economic competitiveness. This shift will transform energy markets, making clean energy the default for businesses, municipalities, and consumers alike. However, there’s an important caveat: Dispatchable sources will still be essential for the foreseeable future.

While renewables will meet the majority of our energy needs, delivering consistent energy with these resources will still be a challenge at night or on days when the sun does not shine or the wind does not blow. This is where dispatchable sources like virtual power plants and biogas play a crucial role.

Both are gaining traction as reliable, scalable solutions. VPPs aggregate decentralized energy generators and loads, such as demand-response assets, rooftop solar, and batteries, to dial down grid loading in real time. Meanwhile, biogas (in the form of renewable natural gas) offers a carbon-negative, dispatchable energy source that can be ramped up quickly when the grid needs it most. Together, these technologies fill the gaps left by intermittent renewables, ensuring reliability without compromising on sustainability.

Then there’s geothermal — which happens to be having a moment.

For decades, geothermal energy has been the underrated player in clean energy discussions. That’s changing fast. Recent advances in drilling and heat-extraction technologies are making this underdog both reliable and cost-competitive.

Unlike wind and solar, geothermal provides a consistent baseload power supply, regardless of weather conditions. As deployment ramps up, it will solidify its position as a cornerstone of clean energy infrastructure, complementing other renewable sources.

EV adoption is speeding up

Passenger electric vehicles are no longer just better for the environment — they’re objectively better products. Now that EVs and internal-combustion-engine vehicles have reached cost parity, the tipping point has arrived. Hockey-stick adoption rates are already evident, and the momentum will only accelerate. Meanwhile, commercial trucks (Class 5 to 8 vehicles) are next in line to electrify. Advances in battery technology and increased manufacturing will make these heavy-duty EVs the standard across logistics, freight, and public transit sectors.

This isn’t speculative; it’s occurring now, and the trend is unstoppable.

Interest rates will lower the cost of capital

In the early 2020s, rising interest rates created challenges for infrastructure projects, including renewable energy deployments. But the tide is turning. As interest rates come down, the cost of capital will drop, unlocking a wave of investments in clean energy infrastructure. This shift will enable more projects to move forward, accelerate timelines, and ensure the economic viability of large-scale deployments.

Private sector will lead the charge

With few exceptions, the private sector is driving the transformative trends outlined above. Entrepreneurs, investors, and corporations are aligning around the economic opportunities presented by clean energy and transportation, ensuring that these technologies scale quickly and efficiently. What’s notably absent in this phase? Grants and subsidies.

Over the past few decades, federal and state governments played a critical role in mitigating the risks of early-stage energy technologies. Grants and subsidies were essential to fostering innovation and de-risking investments. However, this next phase is fundamentally different. The focus is shifting from research and development to deployment, where proven technologies are ready to scale. Their success will now depend on economic efficiency rather than government intervention.

While subsidies were crucial in the past, they often create market distortions and encourage unhealthy behaviors, with companies chasing incentives rather than delivering true value. I’ve seen this firsthand many times, and it’s clear that the private sector performs best when allowed to compete on a level playing field. The profit motive will ensure that this transition happens at scale and with the urgency that the market demands.

Why I’m optimistic for what’s next

The next four years will be defined by action and merit. For entrepreneurs and investors in cleantech, this is the moment to double down. The convergence of cost-competitive technologies, rising demand, and favorable market conditions is creating a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

Policymakers should pivot from funding innovation to creating stable regulatory environments that facilitate deployment. Meanwhile, industry leaders must prioritize execution, scaling proven solutions, and delivering measurable impact.

I’m not ignoring the challenges. Supply-chain constraints, workforce shortages, and geopolitical uncertainties are real issues. But I firmly believe that the opportunities far outweigh the obstacles.

The cleantech industry is entering a golden era in which economics, innovation, and environmental urgency align. This isn’t just a vision — it’s a roadmap for the future. It’s no longer a question of ​“if” or even ​“when” — the clean energy transition is happening now, and the next four years will be transformative. For those ready to seize the moment, the possibilities are limitless.

Let’s get to work.